Commercial Aircraft MRO Market Projected to Reach US$ 165.4 Billion by 2035, Supported by Rising Engine Maintenance Demand Says Astute Analytica

The MRO market is financially robust, driven by an aging fleet and soaring travel demand. However, it operates as a highly constrained seller’s market, where capacity limits, critical labor shortages, and supply chain fragility remain the only barriers to uncapped growth.

Chicago, Jan. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The global commercial aircraft MRO market size was valued at USD 112.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit the market valuation of USD 165.4 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 3.9% during the forecast period 2026–2035.

As we exit 2025, the commercial MRO market is positioned at a historic inflection point, defined by an aggressive “super cycle” of demand that significantly outstrips available capacity. Valued at $96.25 billion, the sector is no longer merely recovering; it is thriving on the back of a global fleet of 29,000 aircraft that is flying harder and older than ever before. The persistent delay in new OEM aircraft deliveries has forced the average fleet age to rise to 13.4 years, necessitating deeper, more capital-intensive maintenance scopes that drive revenue but severely strain resources.

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Geographically, the balance of power is pivoting. While North America and Western Europe remain steady profit centers, the true growth engines are the Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern regions, where government-backed infrastructure is successfully capturing a larger share of heavy maintenance work.

However, this robust positioning faces friction. The commercial aircraft MRO market is currently a definitive “seller’s game,” with hangar utilization hovering near 100% and slots booked out 18-24 months. The primary challenge is no longer securing customers, but rather navigating the fragility of the supply chain and a chronic labor deficit. Consequently, the market is financially strong but operationally stretched, aggressively rewarding providers who prioritize efficiency and digital integration.

Key Findings

• By MRO type, engine overhaul seized 46.50% market share and dominance in the commercial aircraft MRO market.
• By aircraft type, fixed-wing giants leads the market with 95.42% market share.
• By end user, commercial passenger airlines locked in 79% revenue share.
• By service-provider type, independent third-party MROs clinched 50.12% of the revenue share.
• By region, North America contributes nearly 39.15% revenue to global market.

By Service Type, Soaring Engine Shop Visits Drive Highest Value Segment and Capture Over 46.80% Market Share

Propulsion maintenance remains the most capital-intensive segment of the Commercial aircraft MRO market. The industry managed approximately 8,800 engine shop visits in 2024. Forecasters expect the number to rise to 9,000 events in 2025. Specific engine types are driving the surge. The CFM56 family alone accounts for 2,300 projected shop visits in 2025. Newer technology is also maturing rapidly. The LEAP engine family will require 2,000 shop visits in the same year.

A specific subset of engines, including V2500 and PW1100G, will generate 3,500 visits in 2025. Asset retirement also fuels the used serviceable material sector. Europe will see 2,300 CFM56 engines retire between 2024 and 2033. Total engine retirements in the region are projected to reach 5,200 units by 2033. These movements create a vibrant ecosystem for parts trading within the Commercial aircraft MRO market.

By Aircraft Type, Fixed Wing Platforms Securing 95.45% market Share

The overwhelming market share held by fixed-wing aircraft is structurally underpinned by the unique maintenance demands of pressurized fuselages. Unlike the majority of the rotary fleet, commercial jets operate in a cycle of constant pressurization and depressurization, which expands and contracts the metal skin during every flight. This “breathing” of the airframe in the commercial aircraft MRO market creates a susceptibility to metal fatigue and widespread fatigue damage (WFD) that requires a highly sophisticated, capital-intensive monitoring regime known as Corrosion Prevention and Control Programs (CPCP). The regulatory requirement to inspect, reinforce, and repair pressurized structures involves massive non-destructive testing (NDT) campaigns and structural modifications that simply do not exist at the same scale in other aviation sectors.

Beyond the physics of flight, the fixed-wing segment captures 95.45% of the market because of the unparalleled longevity of the airframes through secondary lifecycles. The thriving Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversion market effectively doubles the economic lifespan of fixed-wing assets, pushing them into a second operational phase that requires heavy structural reinforcement and avionics upgrades. While other aircraft types are typically retired upon reaching their primary service limit, fixed-wing jets undergo extensive MRO interventions to transition from hauling passengers to hauling cargo, creating a continuous revenue loop for maintenance providers that extends decades beyond the aircraft’s initial manufacture.

By Application, Commercial Passenger Airlines Driving 78.85% Revenue of the Commercial Aircraft MRO Market

The passenger airline segment generates nearly 80% of total MRO revenue largely due to the rigid return conditions imposed by the global aircraft leasing market. With more than half of the world’s commercial fleet now owned by operating lessors, airlines are contractually bound to rigorous “redelivery conditions” that dictate the exact state of the aircraft upon lease return. These contracts often force airlines to perform full heavy maintenance checks, overhaul landing gear, and replace life-limited components just before handing the aircraft back, regardless of immediate operational necessity. This dynamic creates a layer of “contractual maintenance” that exists purely to satisfy asset transfer requirements, significantly inflating the total spend originating from passenger carriers compared to owner-operator cargo fleets.

Additionally, the revenue share in the commercial aircraft MRO market is bolstered by the seasonal volatility inherent in passenger travel. Airlines must execute compressed maintenance schedules during off-peak windows to ensure maximum fleet availability for summer or holiday surges. This “readiness premium” forces carriers to pay for expedited slots and surge labor capacity, driving up the unit cost of maintenance. Unlike cargo carriers, which have more predictable year-round demand, passenger airlines operate in a feast-or-famine environment where missing a peak season slot due to maintenance delays is financially catastrophic, justifying higher MRO expenditures to guarantee schedule integrity.

By Service Providers, Independent Third Party MROs Holding 49.32% Market Share

Independent MRO providers in the commercial aircraft MRO market have captured the largest slice of the service market by solving the logistical inefficiencies of mixed-fleet operations. As airlines increasingly operate diversified fleets combining Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer platforms to optimize route networks, they face a fragmentation challenge; OEM-affiliated shops typically specialize only in their own products. Independent MROs have capitalized on this by developing “agnostic” capabilities, offering a one-stop-shop solution where a carrier can service its A320s and B737s under a single roof. This integration simplifies supply chain management and reduces the administrative burden of managing multiple vendor relationships, a value proposition that resonates deeply with complex, modern airline groups.

Moreover, the 49.32% share reflects the independent sector’s superior slot agility and capacity absorption. OEMs prioritize production lines and warranty work, often creating bottlenecks for aftermarket support during periods of high demand. Independent facilities, unencumbered by manufacturing mandates, operate as pure-play service buffers that can absorb ad-hoc maintenance requirements and overflow work that the OEM network cannot accommodate. By offering guaranteed slot availability and faster turnaround times for non-scheduled repairs, independent providers have positioned themselves as the essential pressure valve of the global aviation ecosystem, securing their status as the preferred partner for operational resilience.

Unprecedented Fleet Expansion Triggers Massive Surge In Maintenance Market Demand

Operators within the Commercial aircraft MRO market are currently witnessing a historic period of fleet expansion. Data from 2024 confirms an active global inventory of 28,400 aircraft. Forecasts indicate the count will surge to 36,400 units by 2034. Long-term outlooks are even more aggressive. Boeing predicts the total global fleet will hit 50,170 aircraft by 2043. Similarly, Airbus projects the passenger and freighter fleet will nearly double to 49,210 units by 2044. Regional growth creates specific opportunities. China alone will expand its fleet to 6,400 aircraft by 2034.

Supply chain constraints are amplifying immediate aftermarket requirements. Airlines currently face a massive backlog of 17,000 unfilled aircraft orders. Manufacturers estimate clearing this queue will take 14 years at current production rates. Consequently, airlines must extend the service lives of older assets. Such dynamics ensure sustained revenue growth for the Commercial aircraft MRO market. Stakeholders are preparing for a “Super Cycle” of maintenance activity fueled by these distinct converging forces.

Record Passenger Utilization Rates Propel Immediate Revenue Growth For Maintenance Providers

Soaring traveler volumes are pushing the Commercial aircraft MRO market toward record revenue levels. Global passenger volume reached a staggering 4.9 billion travelers in 2024. Estimates suggest the figure will exceed 5.0 billion in 2025. High traffic density translates directly into accelerated wear and tear. The global fleet generated 310 million maintenance hours in 2024 alone. Future projections are even higher. By 2043, the sector will require 565 million maintenance hours annually. Total annual flight hours are forecast to hit 112 million by 2035.

Innovation investment keeps pace with these operational intensities. Airbus invested 2.7 billion EUR in R&D during 2024 to support efficiency. Sustainability mandates are also reshaping maintenance protocols. 40 airlines have established targets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). These operational shifts require rigorous monitoring and new technical standards. High utilization combined with green mandates creates a complex, lucrative landscape for the Commercial aircraft MRO market.

Massive Workforce Deficit Creates Urgent Recruitment Demand Across Global Maintenance Sector

Human capital is the primary bottleneck for the growing Commercial aircraft MRO market. The industry requires 716,000 new maintenance technicians globally by 2043. Regional needs vary significantly. Eurasia leads demand with a requirement for 167,000 new personnel. China follows closely, needing 137,000 technicians. North America must recruit 123,000 workers to maintain fleet readiness. Currently, the US civil MRO sector employs 184,881 maintenance workers.

Labor shortages extend beyond the hangar floor. The aviation sector needs 674,000 new pilots by 2043 to fly these assets. Cabin crew requirements are projected at 980,000 new members. Every active crew member implies an active aircraft requiring interior upkeep. MRO providers must invest heavily in recruitment. Without a robust workforce, the Commercial aircraft MRO market cannot support the projected fleet growth.

Evolving Global Commerce Fuels Rapid Expansion Of Freighter Conversion Maintenance Market

Cargo operations provide a stable growth avenue for the Commercial aircraft MRO market. Airbus forecasts the global freighter fleet will reach 3,420 aircraft by 2044. Boeing predicts a higher total of 3,975 aircraft. The market requires 2,605 additional freighters over the next two decades. Conversions are the preferred method for fulfilling the need. Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) projects will account for 1,670 units. Only 935 units will be new-build freighters.

Shops are already seeing heavy throughput. The backlog for freighter conversions stands at 320 units entering 2025. Widebody assets are particularly active. Approximately 48 widebody aircraft are scheduled for conversion in 2025. These complex structural modifications represent high-value engineering projects. The surge in e-commerce ensures that freighter conversions remain a key pillar of the market.

Aging Fleet Retention And Reactivation Projects Secure Immediate Heavy Check Revenues

Older aircraft retention drives heavy check volume in the Commercial aircraft MRO market. The average age of the global fleet rose to 13.4 years in 2024. Operators are delaying retirements to meet capacity gaps. The average retirement age is now 24 years. Only 300 aircraft were retired in 2024, down from 500 units in 2023. North America maintains the largest concentration of these aging assets. Its fleet is projected to reach 9,850 aircraft by 2034.

Reactivation projects are also surging. There are 770 widebody aircraft currently in storage. Bringing these massive assets back to airworthiness requires extensive labor. Additionally, technical challenges are creating preservation work. Approximately 600 A320neo aircraft remain grounded due to GTF engine issues. Managing these stored assets adds another layer of demand to the Commercial aircraft MRO market.

Accelerated Production Deliveries Unlock Long Term Provisioning Opportunities For Maintenance Market

Production ramps are reshaping the future Commercial aircraft MRO market. Airbus targeted 770 commercial deliveries for the full year 2024. Long-term demand for the 2025-2044 period stands at 43,420 units. Single-aisle aircraft dominate the outlook with 34,250 expected units. Widebody demand is forecast at 9,170 units. These deliveries drive initial provisioning and warranty management.

Fleet replacement cycles are accelerating. Of the new deliveries, 18,930 units will replace older jets. However, 24,480 units are designated for net growth. Emerging markets are claiming a larger share of these assets. India’s fleet is projected to reach 1,500 aircraft by 2034. Such rapid expansion necessitates local maintenance solutions within the Commercial aircraft MRO market.

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Commercial Aircraft MRO Market Key Players:

• AAR Corporation
• Air France Industries KLM Engineering & Maintenance
• Ameco Beijing
• American Airlines Technical Services
• Delta TechOps
• Evergreen Aviation Technologies Corp.
• GE Aviation
• HAECO Group
• Iberia Maintenance
• JAL Engineering Co., Ltd.
• Lufthansa Technik
• MRO Holdings, Inc.
• MTU Aero Engines AG
• Rolls-Royce plc
• Safran S.A.
• SIA Engineering Company
• ST Engineering Aerospace
• TAP Maintenance & Engineering
• Turkish Technic
• Other Prominent Players

Key Market Segmentation:

By Service

• Engine Overhaul
• Airframe Maintenance
• Line Maintenance
• Modification
• Components

By Aircraft Type 

• Fixed Wing
  • Narrow Body
  • Wide Body
  • Regional Jet
  • Turboprop
• Rotary Wing

By Generation 

• Old Generation
• Mid Generation
• New Generation

By Service Provider 

• Airline/Operator MRO
• Independent MRO
• OEM MRO

By Region

• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• Middle East and Africa
• South America

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About Astute Analytica

Astute Analytica is a global market research and advisory firm providing data-driven insights across industries such as technology, healthcare, chemicals, semiconductors, FMCG, and more. We publish multiple reports daily, equipping businesses with the intelligence they need to navigate market trends, emerging opportunities, competitive landscapes, and technological advancements.

With a team of experienced business analysts, economists, and industry experts, we deliver accurate, in-depth, and actionable research tailored to meet the strategic needs of our clients. At Astute Analytica, our clients come first, and we are committed to delivering cost-effective, high-value research solutions that drive success in an evolving marketplace.

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Astute Analytica
Phone: +1-888 429 6757 (US Toll Free); +91-0120- 4483891 (Rest of the World)
For Sales Enquiries: [email protected]
Website: https://www.astuteanalytica.com/ 

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