Commercial HVAC Market is Projected to Hit Valuation of US$ 120.59 Billion by 2033 | Astute Analytica
The market is experiencing a technology-driven transformation, prioritizing sustainability and smart automation. Fierce competition and a skilled labor shortage present significant hurdle, while the push for decarbonization and healthier buildings shapes future investment.
Chicago, Sept. 29, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The global commercial HVAC market was valued at US$ 62.79 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$ 120.59 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.52% during the forecast period 2025–2033.
Governments globally are enforcing rigorous energy standards, creating a powerful catalyst for equipment upgrades. An estimated 4.5 million new commercial HVAC rooftop units (RTUs) are projected for installation across North America and Europe in 2025 to meet these new efficiency requirements. To ensure compliance, the U.S. Department of Energy has scheduled around 15,000 checks on manufacturers in 2024 to enforce SEER2 standards. The Kigali Amendment’s influence is profound, mandating a collective reduction of 850 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, with significant enforcement actions intensifying in the 2024-2025 period. These regulations are fundamentally reshaping equipment design and sales cycles.
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The direct impact of these policies is evident in market-level actions and product development. In the European Union commercial HVAC market, at least 50 new commercial chiller models using low-GWP refrigerants were introduced in early 2024 to align with F-Gas regulations. Cities are also taking action, with projections of over 500 notices of violation being issued in 2025 to non-compliant buildings, forcing HVAC upgrades. To meet demand for verified efficiency, the EPA anticipates over 8,000 new commercial HVAC products will seek ENERGY STAR certification in 2024. Supporting this transition, over 200 distinct municipal and state-level rebate programs for commercial heat pumps are active in the U.S. during 2024, stimulating the forward-looking Commercial HVAC market.
Key Findings in Commercial HVAC Market
| Market Forecast (2033) | US$ 120.59 billion |
| CAGR | 7.52% |
| Largest Region (2024) | North America (34.30%) |
| By Equipment | Cooling Equipment (54%) |
| By Component | Control Systems (17%) |
| By Sales Channel | OEM (77.50%) |
| By Application | Shops (26%) |
| Top Drivers |
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| Top Trends |
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| Top Challenges |
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Heightened Indoor Air Quality Focus Fuels Demand for Advanced HVAC Technologies
A global emphasis on occupant health has pushed Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) to the forefront of building management. This has created a surge in demand for sophisticated air treatment solutions within the Commercial HVAC market. Projections for 2025 show the installation of over 3 million high-capacity HEPA filtration systems in commercial spaces across the Asia-Pacific region alone. To upgrade existing infrastructure, manufacturers are expected to ship approximately 750,000 UV-C light retrofit kits for commercial air handling units in 2024. Following post-pandemic health recommendations, an estimated 25,000 commercial buildings in the United Kingdom are scheduled for ventilation system upgrades during 2024 to improve air exchange rates.
The integration of IAQ monitoring technology in the commercial HVAC market is becoming standard practice across various sectors. It is anticipated that over 10 million individual IAQ sensors, measuring pollutants like CO2 and VOCs, will be integrated into commercial HVAC control systems in 2025. The education sector is a key driver, with at least 400 U.S. school districts allocating specific funds in their 2024-2025 budgets for HVAC systems with advanced IAQ features. Healthcare facilities are also investing heavily, with over 1,000 hospitals planning to install specialized airborne infection isolation rooms in 2025. In addition, manufacturers project sales of over 500,000 commercial-grade bipolar ionization units in 2024.
Smart HVAC Integration and IoT Transforming Commercial Building Operational Intelligence
The convergence of HVAC systems with the Internet of Things (IoT) is revolutionizing building efficiency. The push for smarter, more connected buildings is a dominant trend. Projections for 2025 indicate the installation of 5 million new IoT-enabled commercial thermostats globally. These devices feed data into sophisticated platforms that will generate over 50 million predictive maintenance alerts for commercial systems in 2024, preventing costly downtime. The backbone of this connectivity, the BACnet protocol, continues its expansion with over 12 million new compatible devices, including controllers and sensors, expected to be shipped in 2024.
Advanced smart applications are unlocking new levels of performance and energy savings. At least 3,000 large-scale commercial smart building projects with fully integrated HVAC automation are scheduled to break ground in 2025. Leading manufacturers aim to have over 100,000 cloud-connected commercial chillers operational by the end of 2025, enabling remote diagnostics and optimization. For ultimate performance modeling, an estimated 5,000 commercial properties will implement a “digital twin” of their HVAC systems in 2024. Furthermore, these smart systems will participate in over 2 million automated demand-response events in 2025, helping to stabilize regional power grids.
Hyperscale Data Center Expansion Creates Unprecedented Demand for Precision Cooling
The digital economy’s exponential growth is fueling a construction boom in data centers, a highly lucrative segment of the commercial HVAC market. The scale of this demand is immense, with at least 150 new hyperscale data centers planned for construction globally in 2025. These facilities require robust and specialized cooling, and the market is expected to demand over 250,000 new computer room air conditioner (CRAC) and air handler (CRAH) units in 2025 to equip them. The energy required for this cooling is staggering, with total power consumption for IT cooling projected to reach 200 terawatt-hours in 2025.
To manage the intense heat generated by high-density computing, innovative cooling technologies are seeing rapid adoption. Over 200 large data centers are expected to implement direct-to-chip or immersion liquid cooling solutions in 2024. An estimated 50,000 rear door heat exchangers are also projected for installation in 2024 to provide targeted cooling. The water footprint is significant, with U.S. data centers projected to consume over 1.7 billion liters of water daily for cooling in 2024. As computing moves closer to the user, over 10,000 prefabricated edge data center modules with integrated micro-cooling systems are expected to be deployed in 2025, further diversifying the Commercial HVAC market.
Global Electrification Movement Powers Surge in Commercial Heat Pump Installations
The global push to decarbonize buildings is accelerating the shift from fossil fuels to electric heating solutions. Heat pumps are at the center of this movement, and Europe commercial HVAC market is leading the charge with projections showing over 600,000 commercial-grade air-source heat pumps will be installed there in 2025. In North America, at least 5,000 new commercial geothermal HVAC projects are planned for the 2024-2025 period. The highly efficient Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) market is also expanding rapidly, projected to see installations totaling over 20 million tons of capacity in 2024.
Innovation is broadening the applicability and appeal of electric heating and cooling. In 2024, manufacturers across the commercial HVAC market are set to release at least 30 new commercial heat pump models specifically engineered for high performance in cold climates. Governments are leading by example, with over 1,000 government-owned commercial buildings slated for full heating system electrification by the end of 2025. For building owners seeking a transitional approach, an estimated 150,000 commercial buildings will install hybrid heating systems in 2024. To manage energy costs, over 2,000 commercial HVAC projects in 2025 will integrate thermal energy storage systems.
Key Market Players Like Johnson Controls Drive Innovation and Digital Transformation
Industry leaders are actively shaping the future of the Commercial HVAC market through strategic investments in technology. Johnson Controls serves as a prime example, aiming to have over 25,000 buildings connected to its OpenBlue smart building platform by the end of 2024. This digital push is backed by a substantial allocation of approximately 950 million dollars for research and development in its building solutions segment for the 2024 fiscal year. Such investment translates directly into product innovation, with the company planning to launch 15 new commercial HVAC product families in 2024.
Beyond technology, leading players in the commercial HVAC market are investing in the ecosystem that supports their products and customers. Johnson Controls intends to train over 10,000 HVAC technicians on its new equipment lines through its training institutes in 2025. The company’s focus on intellectual property is clear, as it is expected to file over 400 new patents related to HVAC and building automation in 2024. To improve efficiency, the company is investing in automation upgrades at 5 of its key global HVAC manufacturing facilities throughout 2024. Critically, Johnson Controls is targeting the conversion of 50,000 traditional service contracts to digitally-enabled service agreements by 2025.
Volatile Supply Chains and Material Logistics Necessitate Strategic Industry Adjustments
Navigating supply chain complexities remains a critical challenge for manufacturers in the Commercial HVAC market. To mitigate the risk of production delays, HVAC manufacturers have collectively placed advance orders for over 500 million microcontroller units for delivery in 2025. Commodity price fluctuations have a direct impact on profitability; in 2024, for every 100-dollar increase in the price per ton of copper, the manufacturing cost of a typical commercial chiller increases by an estimated 1,500 dollars. The sheer scale of production is vast, with the industry projected to consume over 8 million tons of steel in 2025.
In response to these pressures, the industry is adopting strategic logistical measures. Ahead of regulatory phasedown deadlines, distributors are estimated to have stockpiled over 40,000 metric tons of R-410A refrigerant in 2024. While volatile in the past, the cost to ship a 40-foot container of HVAC components from Shanghai to Los Angeles has stabilized at around 2,500 dollars for most of 2024. A growing trend toward supply chain resilience is evident in the commercial HVAC market, with at least 20 HVAC component suppliers announcing plans in 2024 to reshore manufacturing operations. However, bottlenecks persist, and as of early 2024, the average lead time for large-tonnage compressors remains at 22 weeks.
Aging Infrastructure and Retrofit Opportunities Define a Lucrative Market Sector
The replacement of aging equipment represents a massive and consistent source of revenue. An estimated 1.2 million commercial HVAC units in the United States will surpass their 20-year operational lifespan in 2025, making them prime candidates for replacement. The need for these upgrades is often identified through formal assessments; over 300,000 energy audits are expected to be conducted on commercial buildings in 2024, with most recommending HVAC retrofits. To streamline these projects, manufacturers expect to sell over 100,000 modular “drop-in” replacement units for aging rooftop systems in 2025.
Modernization projects extend beyond simple equipment swaps to full system overhauls in the commercial HVAC market. Over 50,000 commercial buildings are projected to upgrade their outdated pneumatic HVAC controls to modern Direct Digital Controls (DDC) in 2024, unlocking significant efficiency gains. To restore existing systems, at least 75,000 commercial buildings will undergo HVAC recommissioning in 2025. Specialized work is also a key opportunity, with over 500 designated historic commercial buildings scheduled for non-invasive HVAC retrofits in 2024. At the largest scale, an estimated 2,000 large facilities like hospitals and universities will undertake complete chiller plant modernization projects in the 2024-2025 timeframe.
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Global Construction Booms and Labor Dynamics Shape Market Growth Trajectories
New construction projects in key regional hotspots are fueling significant demand for new installations across the global commercial HVAC market. Giga-projects in the Middle East, such as NEOM, will require the procurement of an estimated 500,000 tons of cooling capacity in 2025. In Southeast Asia, over 4,000 new manufacturing facilities are planned for 2024-2025, all requiring industrial-grade HVAC. The U.S. Sun Belt states of Texas, Florida, and Arizona are projected to account for the installation of over 750,000 new commercial HVAC units in 2025. In Europe, the Renovation Wave strategy will initiate HVAC upgrades in over 2 million buildings starting in 2024.
This immense growth is, however, constrained by a significant labor shortage. The industry faces a projected need for an additional 60,000 HVACR technicians, a shortage becoming more acute in 2024-2025. In response, over 300 new HVAC apprenticeship programs are expected to launch in 2024. The issue is compounded by a retirement wave, as the average age of a senior commercial HVAC technician in 2024 is 52. Technology is helping to bridge the gap; an estimated 150,000 field technicians will be equipped with AR smart glasses for remote support by 2025. Companies are also investing heavily in recruitment, with average sign-on bonuses exceeding 5,000 dollars and plans to order over 25,000 new service vans in 2024, while state boards will require over 1 million hours of continuing education in 2025. The entire Commercial HVAC market must address this challenge to realize its full potential.
Global Commercial HVAC Market Major Players:
- Carrier Corporation
- Daikin Industries LTD
- Gree Corporation
- Haier Electronics Group Co. Ltd
- Ingersoll Rand
- Johnson Controls International PLC
- Lennox International Inc.
- LG Electronics
- Midea Group
- Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
- Panasonic Corporation
- Rheem Manufacturing Company
- Samsung Electronics CO. LTD
- Trane
- Other Prominent Players
Key Market Segmentation:
By Equipment
- Cooling Equipment
- Heating Equipment
- Ventilation Equipment
By Sales Channel
- OEM
- Aftermarket
By Component
- Compressor
- Control Systems
- Expansion Valve
- Evaporator Coils
- Ventilation Fan and Blower Unit
- Filters, Dampers
- Sensor
- Tubing/piping Systems
- Others
By Application
- Office Building
- School & Colleges
- Hotels & Restaurants
- Shops
- Apartment
- Hospitals & Clinics
- Sport Centers
- Data Center
By Region
- North America
- Europe
- Asia Pacific
- Middle East & Africa (MEA)
- South America
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